NSTA Expects UK Crude Oil Output to Continue Dropping in 2025

The North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) expects UK crude oil production to continue dropping this year, according to data published on its website recently. UK crude oil production is projected to average 0.53 million barrels per day in 2025 in the NSTA’s updated output forecasts, which show that this production averaged 0.77 million barrels per day in 2021, 0.71 million barrels per day in 2022, 0.63 million barrels per day in 2023, and 0.56 million barrels per day in 2024. Looking further ahead, the data projects that UK crude oil output will average 0.50 million barrels per day in 2026, 0.46 million barrels per day in 2027, 0.43 million barrels per day in 2028, 0.40 million barrels per day in 2029, and 0.37 million barrels per day in 2030. The NSTA expects UK oil production to average 0.60 million barrels per day in 2025, 0.56 million barrels per day in 2026, 0.52 million barrels per day in 2027, 0.48 million barrels per day in 2028, 0.45 million barrels per day in 2029, and 0.42 million barrels per day in 2030. This production came in at 0.85 million barrels per day in 2021, 0.79 million barrels per day in 2022, 0.70 million barrels per day in 2023, and 0.63 million barrels per day in 2024, according to the data. UK net gas output is projected to average 0.41 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 in the figures. This production is expected to come in at 0.35 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, 0.31 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2027, 0.27 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2028, 0.23 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2029, and 0.20 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2030, the data showed. UK net gas production averaged 0.48 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2021, 0.57 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022, 0.51 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2023, and 0.41 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024, according to the data. In its 2025 Business Outlook report, Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) noted that UK oil and gas production decline has accelerated over the last five years. The report highlighted that this has averaged nine percent since 2020 but added that it “can be stemmed”. Rigzone pointed out this section of OEUK’s report to the NSTA and the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) and asked if they believe the production decline can be stemmed. An NSTA spokesperson told Rigzone the organization can’t speculate on different scenarios. A DESNZ spokesperson said, “oil and gas production will continue to play an important role for decades to come, with the majority of future production in the North Sea expected to come from producing fields or fields already being developed on existing licenses”. “New licenses awarded in the last decade have made only a marginal difference to overall oil and gas production,” the spokesperson added. “Only by sprinting to clean power by 2030 can the UK take back control of its energy and protect both family and national finances from fossil fuel price spikes,” the spokesperson continued. In a release sent to Rigzone recently by the OEUK team, OEUK Chief Executive David Whitehouse said, “our [Business Outlook] report shows as we work together to accelerate renewables the UK must make the most of its own oil and gas - or choose to increase reliance on imports”. “We’re fully engaged with asking policy makers to choose a pragmatic path to the low carbon, high-growth, and secure economy we all want to see,” he added. The NSTA licenses, regulates, and influences the UK oil and gas, offshore hydrogen, and carbon storage industries, according to its website, which notes that the organization “support[s] UK energy security, drive[s] emissions reduction from UK supplies, and help[s] accelerate the transition to net zero to realize the potential of the North Sea as an integrated energy basin”. DESNZ notes on its site that it is responsible for UK energy security, protecting billpayers, and reaching net zero. The NSTA states on its site that it has day to day operational independence from DESNZ, adding that it undertakes its activities in accordance with all applicable laws and regulations and “the Strategy”. It adds that the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero sets the overall policy and legislative framework within which the NSTA operates and is ultimately responsible to Parliament for the NSTA. OEUK describes itself on its site as “the leading trade association for the UK offshore energy industry” and a “not for profit membership organization with a history stretching back five decades”. To contact the author, email [email protected]

The North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) expects UK crude oil production to continue dropping this year, according to data published on its website recently.

UK crude oil production is projected to average 0.53 million barrels per day in 2025 in the NSTA’s updated output forecasts, which show that this production averaged 0.77 million barrels per day in 2021, 0.71 million barrels per day in 2022, 0.63 million barrels per day in 2023, and 0.56 million barrels per day in 2024.

Looking further ahead, the data projects that UK crude oil output will average 0.50 million barrels per day in 2026, 0.46 million barrels per day in 2027, 0.43 million barrels per day in 2028, 0.40 million barrels per day in 2029, and 0.37 million barrels per day in 2030.

The NSTA expects UK oil production to average 0.60 million barrels per day in 2025, 0.56 million barrels per day in 2026, 0.52 million barrels per day in 2027, 0.48 million barrels per day in 2028, 0.45 million barrels per day in 2029, and 0.42 million barrels per day in 2030. This production came in at 0.85 million barrels per day in 2021, 0.79 million barrels per day in 2022, 0.70 million barrels per day in 2023, and 0.63 million barrels per day in 2024, according to the data.

UK net gas output is projected to average 0.41 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 in the figures. This production is expected to come in at 0.35 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, 0.31 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2027, 0.27 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2028, 0.23 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2029, and 0.20 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2030, the data showed.

UK net gas production averaged 0.48 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2021, 0.57 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022, 0.51 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2023, and 0.41 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024, according to the data.

In its 2025 Business Outlook report, Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) noted that UK oil and gas production decline has accelerated over the last five years. The report highlighted that this has averaged nine percent since 2020 but added that it “can be stemmed”.

Rigzone pointed out this section of OEUK’s report to the NSTA and the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) and asked if they believe the production decline can be stemmed.

An NSTA spokesperson told Rigzone the organization can’t speculate on different scenarios. A DESNZ spokesperson said, “oil and gas production will continue to play an important role for decades to come, with the majority of future production in the North Sea expected to come from producing fields or fields already being developed on existing licenses”.

“New licenses awarded in the last decade have made only a marginal difference to overall oil and gas production,” the spokesperson added.

“Only by sprinting to clean power by 2030 can the UK take back control of its energy and protect both family and national finances from fossil fuel price spikes,” the spokesperson continued.

In a release sent to Rigzone recently by the OEUK team, OEUK Chief Executive David Whitehouse said, “our [Business Outlook] report shows as we work together to accelerate renewables the UK must make the most of its own oil and gas – or choose to increase reliance on imports”.

“We’re fully engaged with asking policy makers to choose a pragmatic path to the low carbon, high-growth, and secure economy we all want to see,” he added.

The NSTA licenses, regulates, and influences the UK oil and gas, offshore hydrogen, and carbon storage industries, according to its website, which notes that the organization “support[s] UK energy security, drive[s] emissions reduction from UK supplies, and help[s] accelerate the transition to net zero to realize the potential of the North Sea as an integrated energy basin”.

DESNZ notes on its site that it is responsible for UK energy security, protecting billpayers, and reaching net zero. The NSTA states on its site that it has day to day operational independence from DESNZ, adding that it undertakes its activities in accordance with all applicable laws and regulations and “the Strategy”.

It adds that the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero sets the overall policy and legislative framework within which the NSTA operates and is ultimately responsible to Parliament for the NSTA.

OEUK describes itself on its site as “the leading trade association for the UK offshore energy industry” and a “not for profit membership organization with a history stretching back five decades”.

To contact the author, email [email protected]

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This majority stake gives Tether control over one of the region’s most prominent food and bioenergy producers. Adecoagro owns sugar mills, rice farms, dairy operations, and renewable energy assets across Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay.
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